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(insert little girl scream)
Here's what happened. When I built the carcase, I didn't pay attention to the arc of the endgrain. The second photo, taken from beneath the cabinet, shows the endgrain (on the tails). You can see that the crown of the arc is arching away from the carcase . What happens with a flatsawn board like this is the grain essentially wants to straighten itself out. So, the last tail in between the carcase and the door started to pull away from the last pin, effectively taking the bottom of the door with it. What I thought was an indestructible joint was failing...badly.
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So I added glue, clamped it up, and drove a screw through the pin.
A better way to build a carcase or box is to orient the crown of the arcs toward the box. So, when the grain tries to straighten itself out, the pressure will be into rather than away from the joints.
I haven't had the nerve to check the other side of the carcase, but if it does happen to the other board, I'll know not to hyperventilate.